Bohran-e kambood-e enerzhi jiddi-tarin masale-i ast ke san’at va eqtesad-e ma ra tahdid mikonad va raveshhaye ghadimi-ye ta’min-e enerzhi shamel-e ehedas-e nirugah-haye meqyās-e bozorg va tabdil-e sookht-haye fosili be bargh digar javabgoo nist, va agar natavanim rahkar-e dorost va daghighi barā-ye oboor az in bohran etekhāz konim, tose’eh va estesmar-e kasb o karha ba chalesh-e jiddi movajeh khahad shod.
Az in ro ba barrasi-ye sharayet-e mojood dar keshvarhaye san’ati va bohran-e enerzhi-ye keshvar-e mā, shāh kelid-e gozār az bohran-e bargh va gaz dar Iran va ta’min-e bargh-e paydar barā-ye sanāye’, ehedas-e nirugah-haye tajdidpazir mibashad.
Dar edāmeh be soorat-e mokhtasar sharayet-e enerzhi-ye keshvar va noghat-e za’af va ghovat-e nirugah-haye tajdidpazir ra tashrih khahim namood.
Outlook of the electricity industry
In momento summo anni 1402 (2023/2024), necessitas energiae electricae patriae fuit 73,400 megavattorum, ex quibus circiter 61 milia megavattorum a reticulo suppleta sunt, cum defectu energiae 12 milium megavattorum. Ex investigationibus historicis, consumptio electricae in summo tempore mediocriter 5% quotannis augetur. Hoc anno autem, 1403 (2024/2025), summum postulatum energiae ad 79,872 megavattorum pervenit, incremento 8.7% comparato cum anno superiore.
His in condicionibus, in mense Augusto (Mordad), inaequabilitas energiae fuit circa 17,800 megavattorum, et in mense Septembri (Shahrivar), ad circiter 19,800 megavattorum crevit, quae defectus ad delationes energiae periodicis in domibus et industriae perduxerunt.
Nunc, si per projectus optimizationis, incrementum annuum ab 5% ad 3% redigatur, in proiectione viginti annorum, summum consumptum energiae ad 162,500 megavattorum perveniet. Ad hanc quantitatem energiae praebendam, circiter 200 milia megavattorum capacitatis generandae in reticulo opus erit. Secundum recentissimum indicem industriae aquae et energiae mensis Ordibehesht, tota capacitas energiae electricae nationis est 93 milia megavattorum. Ex comparatione horum numerorum patet, cum ab initio evolutionis industriae electricae usque nunc 93 milia megavattorum generandae capacitatis aedificata sint, in proximis viginti annis circiter 110 milia megavattorum addenda erunt.
Lack of gas in the country
LXXXV percenta energiae electricae nationis e stationibus fossilium generatur, quae praesertim gasio naturali utuntur. Stationes autem thermicae, circiter XXX percenta gasi naturalis consumunt, et maximam partem consumptorum constituunt. His annis, propter incrementum consumptionis gasi, culmina aestiva electrica etiam ad tempus hiemale transierunt. Itaque in analysi status energiae electricae, condicio gasi magni momenti est.
Secundum documentum “Aequatio productionis et consumptionis gasi naturalis usque ad annum 1420”, a Consilio Supremo Energiae anno 1399 publicatum, etiam si productio gasi augeatur et rationes emendationis pretii atque aliae rationes in omnibus sectionibus consumptoribus (domestica, commerciali, publica, stationes electricae, industriae ut chalybs, petrochimica, et cementum) adhibeantur, patria anno 1420 inaequabilitatem cotidianam 111 millionum metrorum cubicorum gasi experietur. Notandum est quod, cum rationes propositae nondum plene adhibitae aut efficaces non sint, praevisiones ostendunt defectum gasi multo maiorem fore quam in hoc documento prolatum est. Exempli gratia, defectus praevisus pro anno 1405 est 300 miliones metrorum cubicorum per diem. Huius numeri magnitudinem intelligere possumus scientes quod anno 1402, consumptio mediocris cotidiana gasi in patria circa 680 miliones metrorum cubicorum erat.
The 1403 (2014) Resolution on the Electricity Needed by Agricultural Wells
This resolution stipulates that farmers must build renewable power plants to meet up to 80 percent of their wells’ consumption demand in order to provide reliable, continuous, and sustainable electricity to their agricultural wells during peak periods.
Article 16 of the Knowledge-Based Production Law
This article states that industries with a capacity of more than one
Approval of 20% of electricity supply for government organizations and public non-governmental institutions from renewable energy
According to this resolution, all government organizations and non-governmental public institutions are required to annually supply 5% of their electricity consumption, up to at least 20%, from renewable energies starting from 1402.
Notification of 1403.09.25 Tavanir regarding the conditions of the 1404 load exemption for industrial subscribers
If industrial subscribers located in industrial estates or with dedicated feeders attempt to build a renewable power plant under the following conditions, they will not be included in the 1404 load management plan:
50% of the consumption demand of single-shift units
65% of the consumption demand of double-shift units
80% of the consumption demand of three-shift units
or equivalent to 35% of the monthly energy consumption of the said subscribers.
Conclusion
Summing up the above, we can conclude that the key to overcoming the current energy shortage crisis is the construction of solar power plants, and investors in this field should consider two key and important points to take this path:
First, allocating land at an amount of about 1.5 hectares per megawatt of power plant and
Second, providing the necessary capital at an amount of about $450,000 per megawatt of power plant.
